Oxford University Press (OUP), Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, 2020
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Abstract We propose a geometric method of analysis for the light curves of active galactic nuclei (AGN). The time series of flux ratio is modeled by possibly nonlinear random oscillation without specifying the function form. Based on the model, we map the dynamic behavior of flux ratio to a vector field on a manifold, and then analyze the vector field to retrieve information on the dynamic properties closely linked with the activity of AGN. While the function form of the model is unspecified, the vector fields and those associated quantities can be estimated by applying a nonparametric filtering method. We illustrate the proposed analysis with an application to light curves of two AGNs supplied by the Kepler satellite. The application shows that the vector field, its derivative and their combination will be used as the tools of picking up various signals that help understanding of the activity of AGN. In addition, from a technical viewpoint, the nonparametric filtering method allows the estimation to be robust against outliers. The proposed analysis could be used as alternative time series analysis of the optical variability other than the analysis by spectral densities or structure functions.