Drought management plans (DMPs) require an overview of future climate conditions for ensuring long term relevance of existing decision-making processes. To that end, impact studies are expected to best reproduce decision-making needs linked with catchment intrinsic sensitivity to climate change. The objective of this study is to apply a risk-based approach through sensitivity, exposure and sustainability assessments to evaluate the vulnerability of current DMPs operating in the Rhône-Méditerranée (RM) district to future climate projections. After inspection of legally-binding water restrictions (WR) from the DMPs in the RM district, a framework to derive WR durations was developed based on harmonized low-flow indicators. Whilst the framework could not perfectly reproduce all WR ordered by state services, as deviations from socio-political factors could not be included, it enabled to identify most WRs under current baseline, and to quantify the sensitivity of WR duration to a wide range of perturbed climates for 106 catchments. Four classes of responses were found across the RM district. Using the drought of 2011 to define a critical threshold of acceptable WR, the analysis showed that catchments in mountainous areas, highly sensitive to temperature changes, are also the most predisposed to future restrictions under projected climate changes considering current DMPs whilst catchments around the Mediterranean Sea, mainly sensitive to precipitation changes, were less vulnerable to projected climatic changes. The tools developed enable a rapid assessment of the effectiveness of current DMPs under climate change, and can be used to prioritize review of the plans for those most vulnerable basins.