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Variability, timescales, and non-linearity in climate responses to black carbon emissions

This paper is available in a repository.
This paper is available in a repository.

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Preprint: policy unknown
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Postprint: policy unknown
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Published version: policy unknown

Abstract

Black carbon (BC) particles exert a potentially large warming influence on the Earth system. Reductions in BC emissions have attracted attention as a possible means to moderate near-term temperature changes. For the first time, we evaluate regional climate responses, non-linearity, and short-term transient responses to BC emission perturbations in the Arctic, mid-latitudes, and globally based on a comprehensive set of emission-driven experiments using the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Surface temperature responses to BC emissions are complex, with surface warming over land from mid-latitude BC perturbations partially offset by ocean cooling. Climate responses do not scale linearity with emissions. While stronger BC emission perturbations have a higher burden efficiency, their temperature sensitivity is lower. BC impacts temperature much faster than greenhouse gas forcing, with transient temperature responses in the Arctic and mid-latitudes approaching a quasi-equilibrium state with a timescale of 2–3 years. We find large variability in BC-induced climate changes due to background model noise. As a result, perturbing present-day BC emission levels results in no discernible net global-average surface temperature signal. In order to better understand the climatic impacts of BC emissions, both the drivers of non-linear responses and response variability need to be assessed across climate models.

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