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4DVAR assimilation of GNSS zenith path delays and precipitable water into a numerical weather prediction model WRF

Preprint published in 2018 by Witold Rohm, Jakub Guzikowski, Karina Wilgan, Maciej Kryza
This paper is available in a repository.
This paper is available in a repository.

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Preprint: policy unknown
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Postprint: policy unknown
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Abstract

The GNSS data assimilation is currently widely discussed in the literature with respect to the various applications in meteorology and numerical weather models. Data assimilation combines atmospheric measurements with knowledge of atmospheric behavior as codified in computer models. With this approach, the best estimate of current conditions consistent with both information sources is produced. Some approaches allow assimilating also the non-prognostic variables, including remote sensing data from radar or GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System). These techniques are named variational data assimilation schemes and are based on a minimization of the cost function, which contains the differences between the model state (background) and the observations. This paper shows the results of assimilation of GNSS data into numerical weather prediction (NWP) model WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting). The WRF model offers two different variational approaches: 3DVAR and 4DVAR, both available through WRF Data Assimilation (WRFDA) package. The WRFDA assimilation procedure was modified to correct for bias and observation errors. We assimilated the Zenith Troposphere Delay (ZTD), Precipitable Water (PW), radiosonde (RS) and surface synoptic observations (SYNOP) using 4DVAR assimilation scheme. Three experiments have been performed: (1) assimilation of PW and ZTD for May and June of 2013, (2) assimilation of: PW alone; PW, with RS and SYNOP; ZTD alone; and finally ZTD, with RS and SYNOP for 5–23 May 2013, and (3) assimilation of PW or ZTD during severe weather events in June 2013. Once the initial conditions were established, the forecast was run for 48 hours. The obtained WRF predictions are validated against surface meteorological measurements, including air temperature, humidity, wind speed, and rainfall rate. Results from the first experiment (May and June 2013) show that the assimilation of GNSS data (both ZTD and PW) have positive impact on the rain and humidity forecast. However, the assimilation of ZTD is more successful, and brings substantial reduction of errors in rain forecast by 8 %, and a 20 % improvement in bias of humidity forecast, but it has a slight negative impact on temperature bias and wind speed. Second experiment (5–23 May 2013) reveals that the PW or ZTD assimilation leads to a similar reduction of errors as in the first experiment, moreover, adding SYNOP and RS observations to the assimilation does not improve the humidity or rain forecasts (in the 48 h forecast) but reduces errors in the wind speed and temperature. Furthermore, short term predictions (up to 24 h) of rain and humidity are better when SYNOP and RS observations are assimilated. The impact of assimilation of ZTD and PW in severe weather cases is mixed, one out of three investigated cases shows positive impact of GNSS data, whereas other two neutral or negative.

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