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Less Frequent but More Severe Hydrological Drought Events Emerge at 1.5 and 2 °C Warming Levels over the Wudinghe Watershed in northern China

Preprint published in 2018 by Yang Jiao, Xing Yuan
This paper is available in a repository.
This paper is available in a repository.

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Preprint: policy unknown
Question mark in circle
Postprint: policy unknown
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Published version: policy unknown

Abstract

Assessment of changes in hydrological droughts at specific warming levels (e.g., 1.5 or 2 °C) is important for an adaptive water resources management with consideration of the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, most studies focused on the response of drought frequency to the warming and neglected other drought characteristics including severity. By using a semiarid watershed in northern China (i.e., Wudinghe) as an example, here we show less frequent but more severe hydrological drought events emerge at both 1.5 and 2 °C warming levels. We used meteorological forcings from eight Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate models with four representative concentration pathways, to drive a newly developed land surface hydrological model to simulate streamflow, and analyzed historical and future hydrological drought characteristics based on the Standardized Streamflow Index. The Wudinghe watershed will reach the 1.5 °C (2 °C) warming level around 2006–2025 (2019–2038), with an increase of precipitation by 6 % (9 %) and runoff by 17 % (27 %) as compared to the baseline period (1986–2005). This results in a drop of drought frequency by 26 % (27 %). However, the drought severity will rise dramatically by 63 % (30 %), which is mainly caused by the increased variability of precipitation and evapotranspiration. The climate models contribute to more than 82 % of total uncertainties in the future projection of hydrological droughts. This study suggests that different aspects of hydrological droughts should be carefully investigated when assessing the impact of 1.5 and 2 °C warming.

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