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Long-term variability of droughts in the Czech Lands and large-scale climate drivers

This paper is available in a repository.
This paper is available in a repository.

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Postprint: policy unknown
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Abstract

While a considerable number of records document the temporal variability of droughts for central Europe, understanding of its underlying causes remains limited. In this contribution, time series of three drought indices (SPI, SPEI, PDSI) that may be used to characterize the long-term drought regime of the Czech Lands are analyzed with regard to their mid-to-long-term variability and potential links to external and internal climate forcings over the 1501–2006 period. Employing instrumental and proxy-based data characterizing the external climate forcings (solar and volcanic activity, concentration of greenhouse gases) in parallel with series that correspond to the activity of climate variability modes with pronounced inter-annual to inter-decadal variability (El Niño–Southern Oscillation – ENSO, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation – AMO, Pacific Decadal Oscillation – PDO), regression and wavelet analysis were deployed to identify and quantify the temporal variability patterns of drought indices and similarity between individual signals. Aside from the long-term trend that correlates with anthropogenic radiative forcing, temperatures in the AMO and PDO regions were disclosed as one of the possible drivers of inter-decadal variability in the Czech drought regime. Colder and wetter episodes were found to coincide with increased volcanic activity, while no clear signature of solar activity was found. In addition to identification of the links themselves, their temporal stability and coherence were investigated. The oscillations at periods of approximately 60–100 years were found to be potentially relevant in establishing the teleconnections affecting the long-term variability of central European droughts.

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